Austria’s Election Earthquake: An Intelligence Assessment

Vienna faces a changed political landscape after Sunday’s vote – what does it mean for Europe, for NATO, for Ukraine, and for Vladimir Putin?

Sunday’s federal elections in Austria garnered considerably more attention than usual from outside observers. The Alpine republic of not quite ten million is picturesque and popular with tourists, but taken overall, rather boring. Vienna hasn’t mattered on the world stage since the Habsburgs lost their empire at the end of the First World War. Since the early Cold War, Austria has been a neutral lacking heft in global affairs.

Nevertheless, politics-watchers across Europe and beyond surveyed Sunday’s elections with considerable interest since it was anticipated to bring a win, for the first time, for the far-Right Freedom Party (FPÖ), and that’s exactly what happened. The FPÖ, long a progressive bugbear, seems designed in a lab to send leftists over the edge: Founded in part by former Nazis, the party dabbles on the fringes of old-school German nationalism of the kind that’s officially verboten in Austria, loathes migrants (especially Muslim ones) and seeks to deport them, plus is broadly keen on Vladimir Putin.

Despite, or perhaps because of all that, the FPÖ came in first on Sunday, the party’s first-ever taking the prime position in elections to the federal parliament. They got 29 percent of the vote and 57 seats in the lower house (compared to 16 percent and 31 seats in the last election in 2019). Most of that gain came at the expense of the center-right People’s Party (ÖVP), which dropped to 26 percent and 51 seats (2019: 38 percent and 71 seats). The Social Democrats (SPÖ) stood in place, with 21 percent and 41 seats (2019: 21 percent and 40 seats), but since the wider race shifted, they fell to an unprecedented third place finish. The eccentric NEOS party, which is liberal in the European (not American) sense, rose slightly, while the Greens lost most of their seats gained in 2019: both parties came in under ten percent of the vote. The Communists and the BEER Party (really) failed to win any parliamentary seats.